So now that the first round is over I can review the Tarot-based predictions I made for each series in the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs. In terms of series outcome, these predictions were 5 for 8, which may not sound that great (based on a back-of-the-envelope calculation, the odds of getting that result by chance are about 1 in 5). But I’m actually reasonably pleased with this outcome, for reasons I’ll explain. As well, though not all of the details that I tried to glean from each reading came to pass, some certainly did. Read on for the full analysis!
I’m going to do these in the order that the series finished, rather than the order listed in the last post.
Detroit Red Wings vs. Phoenix Coyotes
Prediction: Phoenix in 7
Outcome: Detroit in 4
The prediction for a late-series Phoenix victory clearly didn’t come to fruition here, with Detroit sweeping the Coyotes in four games. It’s strange that both of the cards that I would associate with defeat appeared on the Detroit side, while both of those that I would associate with victory went to Phoenix. Still, this is the only prediction of the eight that was wildly incorrect.
Washington Capitals vs. New York Rangers
Prediction: Washington in 6-7
Outcome: Washington in 5
This series took less time than I had predicted, but the Capitals were indeed the winners. Admittedly I did not know much about the Washington team prior to the playoffs, but I was quite impressed by goaltender Michal Neuvirth, going 4-1 and posting impressing save percentages and GAA in his first NHL season; does that count as a large impact by a young player? If so, tally that for the Tarot as well.
Anaheim Ducks vs. Nashville Predators
Prediction: Nashville in 6
Outcome: Nashville in 6
This reading delivered the outcome exactly correctly, though my interpretation did go astray in the details. Nashville did not drop the first two games, but ended up trading wins back and forth until Game 6, when they finally broke the trend and won the series 4-2.
San Jose Sharks vs. Los Angeles Kings
Prediction: San Jose in 6-7
Outcome: San Jose in 6
Here again, my interpretation was able to discern the winner, though I don’t know if this series ended up being any more brutal than some others. While three of the six games did take overtime to settle, and only one of the matches was won by the home team, there were no particularly bad injuries or multiple-OT games. Perhaps once some more of the aggregate statistics become available I’ll figure out what went on here.
Philadelphia Flyers vs. Buffalo Sabres
Prediction: Philadelphia in 6
Outcome: Philadelphia in 7
This certainly appeared to be a far more clear-cut match in the reading; a Philadelphia victory was perhaps the most unambiguous of all eight series outcomes. However, Buffalo led the series twice and resisted a strong Flyers rally in Game 5 to push them to the brink of elimination. I had called a dirty hit from a Buffalo player, but if anything the dirty hit was delivered to Buffalo, by Richards to Connolly in Game 6. Still, in the end Philly decisively put the series away in Game 7.
Vancouver Canucks vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Prediction: Chicago in 5 or 7
Outcome: Vancouver in 7
As a Canadian I was excited by an early Vancouver series lead, but the reading said Chicago, so I have to admit I was somewhat pleased when the Blackhawks rallied to tie the series and force a deciding game. In the end, Chicago pushed Vancouver to the very limit, and the Canucks needed overtime in Game 7 to win it. In many ways this series came down to a coin toss, and Tarot is never good at coin tosses. If Chicago had taken advantage of a bad turnover instead of creating one, this series might have ended in their favor.
Boston Bruins vs. Montreal Canadiens
Prediction: Montreal in 7
Outcome: Boston in 7
If I had to choose a prediction I was least confident in, it would have been this one, since it appeared to show strong points for each team without a clear way to decide between them. Quite appropriate for a series that went back and forth and was tightly contested. My gut went for Montreal but Boston took it in the end. Goaltending was definitely a story throughout, with both Price and Thomas keeping their respective teams alive. Again, this one came right down to the wire, and could have gone either way.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Prediction: Tampa Bay in 5 or 7
Outcome: Tampa Bay in 7
Unsurprisingly, my Sidney Crosby prediction came to pass, but so did my prediction about the number of road wins; in 5 of the 7 games the away team was the victor, with each team winning only once at home. This one too came down to a very tight seventh game, but no overtime was required – Tampa Bay took the game and the series on the road, buoyed by their number one line of Lecavalier, St. Louis and Gagne who combined for 21 points over the course of the series.
One of my goals was to determine what number and configuration of cards made for the best prediction, and based on this set of readings, having an “outcome card” made a huge difference. Of the four readings with an outcome card, all four predicted the series winner, but only one of the four readings without an outcome card got the winner right. So that will definitely inform my future attempts. Elemental dignities may also play a greater role than I had first anticipated, so I’ll have to keep that in mind too.
I will be making a series of predictions for the second round, to follow in a separate post sometime before the Vancouver – Nashville game tonight. Stay tuned!